Portfolio Review - Mar 2017

Keppel Reit
- Vested start from 2013
- Return XIRR is 7%
- Revenue increase yoy
- Net income , Distribute Income and DPU dropping yoy.
- Intrest coverage remain 4.1x
- Good thing holding AA class properties.
- Action : release and switch to other targets



Cambridge Reit
-Vested start from 2013
- Revenue increase yoy
- Net income , Distribute Income and DPU dropping yoy.
- Intrest coverage remain 3.6x
- Action : release and switch to other targets


Super Group
- Vested start from 2014
- Offer for 1.30
- Action : release and switch to other targets


Neratel
- Vested start from 2015
-  invest reason due to  payment solution which provide stable income.
- Action :  release and switch to other targets

Plan 2017

Family &  Financial Plan：

• Apply PR for child
• Buy HDB which target complete by 1H.
• Setup Mom Medical fund.
• Review family insurance whether plus or minus.
• Reduce life insurance exposure and convert to Term insurance?
• Buy insurance for child.
• Share Investment and target 10% return for current portfolio.

Carreer Plan :

• Still not yet have clear direction whether should continue current technical job. Hence this year stick current job.
• Monitoring job market and understand own price.
• Target attend two courses to increase my competative.

Location Plan :

• No aim this year decide whether want convert singaporean.
• However will spare time review it.
• End of year should have decision whehter convert citizen.

Hobby Plan :

• N.A.

Self Growth Plan :

• Read 12 books for this year. 
• Technical - relate to clouding, web service and DB
• Finance - more on investment. this yr avoid read 理财 book.
• Personality - social or thinking.
• "New topic" - increase circle competency 

Random Thought of Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic Value
That is no standard way to find company intrinsic value. Some use DCF, DDM to estimate future growing and some is use assest value and earning power to find out intrinsic value.
Seem it reason why market price keep up and down.

To me I also try figure my own guide line to find intrinsic value.


Stable Earning
One company no need surge profit. If have then is bonus but more prefer earning is keep growing, slowly grow is fine.
First need study the company's business model and find out business moats.
Need understand how many come in.

After know stable earning then PE can be more trustable.

Future earning - 
No one will know future and it not easy to estimate exact value.
What can do is foresee the TREND of business.


Cash > debt (Cash Cow)
Company can give stable div although not earning not enough cover.
Not worry bankrupt because cash flow enough pay debt.

If this criteria be choose, need to monitor cash level.


Dividend
Dividend does not be reason to increase intrinsic value.
This because company need capable generate enough cash flow to pay dividend. Hence without profit then no dividend, if company pay dividend with not profit support will not stable or sustainable.

However company pay dividend can let me feel safe. First thing is revenue or profit what i see in report can more or less consider correct figure. Second is when market price drop, the dividend can increase confident.


Debt Level
Not all company have lot of cash, especially growing company always reinvest earning into business.
Low debt to me is more safe and it have room to borrow more to expandable when company see chance.

This criteria not suit be main reason to buy in company. It just can tell u the company have healty debt ratio but be noted need pair with earning. Let say the company have low debt but it earning keep droping mean it posible can repay debt.



NAV
It can help u determine whether u buy company in discounted price.

If this criteria be choose, need check against company earning value. Although buy cheaper but the thing you buy not generate enough value still not worth at all.




Above criteria mostly surround with one criteria that is company's earning. One company no earning make no value at all. Hence i should put more effort study company's business and will company revenue sustainable.

Thought on my carreer

I'm already 31 years old. I working in the same IT company more than 8 years and this is my first job as well. Why I'm still working in same company, this because i'm not yet find reason why i need leave this company. I don want simply change my job without good reason.

In this many year, I start work as junior developer and   now my title is lead of developer. It consider have career improvement every 3 to 4 years ( Junior - Senior - Lead).

To let early retirement come early then high pay still sit on important position in my plan. How about my return for all hard work invested. :)
Current salary is higher a bit compare to market price. Average yearly bonus is around 3 month.

Working environment so far quite peacefully for example not many office politic. May i'm not in management level so i'm not feel it. But base on what i observe everyone still work to goal.
Some more it could due to I'm already service company some time so I'm already gain some respect and trust from colleague and manager. Hence, most of time my idea more ease to accept by people.


Recently I start to wonder is it time to change different environment? Why have this kind feeling.
Company structure very simple so I can't see any ladder for me to climb. I have think that create position for myself if company don have for example Architect, but think deeply it just a name only.

This is my first job so that mean I'm never works in other company before. Hence no idea how other company look like and is it same with my company. I'm more like frog sit inside well because I cant compare with other company.

The rest of thing is good.

Portfolio Update - Aug 2014

Description	Ave Price	Market Price	% of Portfolio
Ascott Reit	1.224	1.23	3.84
RickmersMaritime	0.291	0.29	9.05
Global Inv	0.144	0.14	10.92
Chip Eng Seng	0.816	0.94	7.33
CapitaMall Trust	1.843	1.99	6.21
Elec & Eltek USD	1.656	1.48	8.69
Cambridge Ind Tr	0.699	0.71	3.32
Keppel Land	3.251	3.48	27.14
Keppel Reit	1.204	1.24	3.87
Yamada Green Res	0.174	0.169	2.64
Super Group	1.392	1.365	8.52
Suntec Reit	1.46	1.815	8.49

In Aug, I have vested Chip Eng Seng into my portfolio. 

Less than 10% cash of my portfolio on hand. Next step is I will stop inject money and aim to accumulate more cash on hand.

Stock Home Work - Neratel

Recently read an article and interest on the strategy their introduce called CNAV strategy. Which use to valuate stock.
I have not attend their course however base on the what article describe so I try to apply it into one of my watch list stock which is Neratel.

I use back 2013 financial data to calculate CNAV strategy. Let see result :


The Key Quantitative Indicators of CNAV Strategy:

Net Asset Value (NAV)                               = $0.1662


Conservative Net Asset Value Per Share      = $0.27

• Intagible Asset : 1.138m
• Bank cash : 39.270 m
• Conservative Asset (I'm not exclude tangible assets like furniture...): 97.683m
• Long Term Debt + Short Term Debt : 0 m
• Num of share : 361.897m
• Sum (Conservative Asset - Liability)  = 97.683 m

Current Price                                              = $0.790     

Discount For CNAV2                                    = -292%

The price  look a bit premium some compare to NAV. The current price is 400% premium against NAV. As we know teleco company is capital intensive company. Hence CNAV not enough to tell whether want to vested or not.



POF Score
1. Profitability 

Gain 1 Point
Reason  :   It current traded with PE 12 with market capital around 285.899 M. I try calculate average PE among those company similar to neratel which is PE 13.

2. Operating Efficiency
Gain 1 Point
Reason  : Three year have positive operating cash flow which from 2011 to 2013.

3. Financial Position
Gain 1 Point
Reason : Neratel have cash around 39.270 m + recievable (50% discount) around 25 m. It stand with no debt. Hence I believe it have strong balance sheet.


Conclusion : 3 out of 3 it consider pass POF score. My preference PE ratio around 5-10 however compare to teleco market average it seem still acceptable range.




Dividend Yield
To be more play safe I need have some compensate even though market adjustment. lol.
Neratel with current price the dividend yield at 7.59%,  Which is already catch up my attention, but i need see how stable for dividend.

Year	Div Per Share	Free Cash Flow Per Share
2010	0.04	0.063
2011	-	0.072
2012	0.08	0.032
2013	0.06	0.0338

In POF have mention that Neratal past three year operating cash flow is positive. From above dividend history against the FCF of Operation cash flow which stated Neratel money generate from operation not enough cover current dividend payment.

Is it still sustainable for current yield. As I know they start of retail solution business, which can help them generate recurring income and it is important when talk about dividend. I personal more prefer this type business and it easily to expand.

Step Review 1H 2014

In 1H 2014, Not much change on first half year. The big movement is bought insurance to have better cover unknown circumstances happen. I think it needed especially when early retirement.

Hospitality and Surgery

Previously I covered under medi shield insurance and the premium is paid by medisave. This is co-payment plan and percentage of co-payment it might not able cover full medical bill payment and at the end might wipe out my medisave balance. It only can go government hospital with class B2 ward, it not good because you may need queue for medical cure.

Therefore I upgrade current medi shield to Integrated shield plan which also can paid by medisave. The co-payment can reach 90% of the medical bill and can go private hospital for hospitalization. 

I have bought rider for the co-payment so maximum need to paid is $3k but the premium need paid by cash.

Annual Premium paid by Medi save : $341 (Not fixed, increase base on your old)

Annual Premium paid by Cash : $153

Income Protection

I bought this rider to protect  if anything happen cause I lost my active income. This plan is kick off if assurer can not recover within 6 month, then the plan give 70% of your salary every month. This plan only covered me till age 65 which is retirement.

Annual Premium paid by Cash : $462.35

Life Insurance.

Standard insurance which i think most of people will have one. When death your family will receive sum assured amount money. This kind another feature I call "saving" which mean when policy mature you will received certain amount. Sound good right? but this kind normally not cheap and 70% percentage of insurance premium is from this plan. For family so I bought it ;)

Annual Premium paid by Cash :  $ 2475.55

Total Annual Premium By Cash : $3090.9

Monthly : $257.57